Known for its rich dark soil and vast farmland, Ukraine has been coined the "Bread Basket of Europe." Ukraine was responsible for producing 25% of the former USSR's agricultural production. Today, Russia and Ukraine export nearly 30% of global wheat, exporting 17.7% and 8%, respectively. As the Russia Ukraine saga plays out in the region, it is causing a lot of uncertainty in global wheat markets.
The consumer conversation for the "Russia Ukraine Conflict" in the context of "Wheat Prices" has exploded since November 2021. The connection strength between the two terms is 100%, indicating an extremely high degree of similarity, or how semantically connected the terms are, between the pair of signals. As the conversation for "Russia Ukraine Conflict" has increased, so has the conversation for wheat prices.
Since tensions between the two countries flared up in May, wheat futures have climbed 18% to current levels. NWO.ai's signal for "Russia Ukraine Conflict" is 97.22% correlated with wheat futures and is a leading indicator for the price by 14 days. The future growth in the conversation for "Russia Ukraine Conflict" will entirely depend on whether Russia and NATO can come to a deal or if war breaks out.
If conflict breaks out in the region, we would expect the price of wheat to climb. While military action by NATO members or the United States is unlikely, what is likely is economic sanctions targeting a range of Russian exports, including potentially wheat. The potential consequences could be disastrous for countries that rely on Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports. Still, the Biden administration will take drastic action to punish Russia to reassert American and NATO dominance. Either way, geopolitical and consumer uncertainty on the conflict will drive price volatility for wheat futures in the short term.
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